The key points:
- Tony Seba argues we are on the cusp of massive disruptions across all sectors of the economy due to converging technologies. He cites examples of previous years “S-curve” disruptions like cars replacing horses.
- He predicts electric vehicles will disrupt transportation by 2030 as costs drop below $5,000 per vehicle. Autonomous, electric ridesharing fleets will be 10x cheaper than owning a car.
- Solar energy is now the cheapest energy source globally. Adding just 20% more investment can increase solar output 200% due to nonlinear returns. This will enable 100% solar/wind/battery systems nearly everywhere.
- Precision fermentation will disrupt the dairy industry by producing milk proteins through modified yeast instead of cows. This is 100x more land efficient. By 2030 animal proteins will be obsolete for economic reasons.
- Together, disruptions in transport, energy, food, information and materials will transform all sectors. We’ll regain billions of acres of land while decarbonizing 90% of the economy by 2035.
- Seba argues everything we know about economics will change as key resources trend toward abundance and zero marginal cost. Organizations must adapt mindsets to understand and harness these disruptions over the next 15–20 years.
Gravity (cost drop)
Lol: AI — “double” exponential
95% will use TaaS
Gravity again
Convergence (transportation, energy, …)
Phase change transformation into new system..
Precision fermentation
The disruption of the Cow // disruption of milk
